This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Drmaestro’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Drmaestro | training | published before 2020 | 50 | 29 |
Drmaestro | validation | published 2020 | 2 | 0 |
Drmaestro | test | published after 2020 | 1 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Drmaestro | Asmodee | 32.0% | 2.6% | 12.47 |
Drmaestro | Player Elimination | 30.0% | 3.4% | 8.90 |
Drmaestro | Space Exploration | 10.0% | 1.2% | 8.44 |
Drmaestro | Voting | 18.0% | 2.1% | 8.42 |
Drmaestro | Bluffing | 40.0% | 5.7% | 7.03 |
Drmaestro | Pegasus Spiele | 14.0% | 2.2% | 6.36 |
Drmaestro | American West | 6.0% | 1.1% | 5.67 |
Drmaestro | Political | 12.0% | 2.3% | 5.21 |
Drmaestro | Gamewright | 4.0% | 0.8% | 5.20 |
Drmaestro | Nautical | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.09 |
Drmaestro | Memory Mechanic | 16.0% | 4.5% | 3.59 |
Drmaestro | Crowdfunding Kickstarter | 38.0% | 12.5% | 3.03 |
Drmaestro | Party Game | 26.0% | 9.3% | 2.79 |
Drmaestro | Card Game | 50.0% | 29.5% | 1.70 |
Drmaestro | Open Drafting | 6.0% | 8.4% | 0.72 |
Drmaestro | Movement Points | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.00 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.924 | no |
2 | 1982 | 2653 | Survive: Escape from Atlantis! | 0.821 | no |
3 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.819 | no |
4 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.767 | no |
5 | 2015 | 163967 | Tiny Epic Galaxies | 0.654 | no |
6 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.608 | no |
7 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.603 | no |
8 | 2016 | 286447 | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | 0.569 | no |
9 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.561 | no |
10 | 2002 | 3955 | BANG! | 0.560 | yes |
11 | 2018 | 244536 | Tiny Epic Zombies | 0.506 | yes |
12 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.474 | no |
13 | 2012 | 131357 | Coup | 0.473 | yes |
14 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.459 | no |
15 | 2008 | 38159 | Ultimate Werewolf: Ultimate Edition | 0.445 | no |
16 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.408 | no |
17 | 2014 | 160067 | The Worst Game Ever | 0.402 | no |
18 | 2014 | 148951 | Tiny Epic Kingdoms | 0.396 | no |
19 | 2007 | 31053 | Pirates of the Caribbean PocketModel Game | 0.387 | no |
20 | 2003 | 6472 | A Game of Thrones | 0.363 | no |
21 | 2015 | 175549 | Salem 1692 | 0.356 | no |
22 | 2013 | 143741 | BANG! The Dice Game | 0.349 | no |
23 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.330 | no |
24 | 2019 | 285826 | Ultra-Tiny Epic Galaxies | 0.309 | yes |
25 | 2005 | 18289 | Key Largo | 0.299 | no |
26 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.292 | no |
27 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.288 | no |
28 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.287 | no |
29 | 2002 | 4174 | Lifeboat | 0.286 | yes |
30 | 2019 | 272409 | Tiny Epic Tactics | 0.271 | yes |
31 | 2019 | 257283 | Tiny Epic Mechs | 0.269 | yes |
32 | 2015 | 155708 | Tiny Epic Defenders | 0.261 | no |
33 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.257 | no |
34 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.243 | no |
35 | 2018 | 230130 | Forsaken Forest | 0.241 | no |
36 | 2013 | 136063 | Forbidden Desert | 0.240 | no |
37 | 2016 | 193037 | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 0.220 | no |
38 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.217 | no |
39 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.215 | yes |
40 | 2015 | 163166 | One Night Ultimate Werewolf: Daybreak | 0.212 | no |
41 | 2015 | 173319 | Lost Legacy: Second Chronicle – Vorpal Sword & Whitegold Spire | 0.210 | no |
42 | 1976 | 3083 | Submarine | 0.204 | no |
43 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.198 | no |
44 | 2009 | 41541 | Are You the Traitor? | 0.187 | no |
45 | 2016 | 180852 | Tiny Epic Western | 0.180 | yes |
46 | 2001 | 25821 | The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow | 0.177 | no |
47 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.175 | no |
48 | 2016 | 216740 | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | 0.163 | no |
49 | 1985 | 1117 | You're Bluffing! | 0.163 | no |
50 | 2005 | 18258 | Mission: Red Planet | 0.161 | no |
51 | 2016 | 171131 | Captain Sonar | 0.160 | yes |
52 | 2013 | 144239 | Impulse | 0.156 | no |
53 | 2014 | 148943 | Coup: Rebellion G54 | 0.155 | no |
54 | 2018 | 209324 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | 0.149 | no |
55 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.148 | no |
56 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.146 | no |
57 | 2017 | 224119 | 21 Days | 0.146 | no |
58 | 2014 | 152241 | Ultimate Werewolf | 0.140 | no |
59 | 2016 | 168895 | Corrupted Kingdoms | 0.139 | no |
60 | 2013 | 111732 | Kings of Air and Steam | 0.136 | no |
61 | 1978 | 242 | Junta | 0.136 | no |
62 | 2013 | 140693 | Fox & Chicken | 0.136 | no |
63 | 2015 | 176361 | One Night Revolution | 0.135 | yes |
64 | 2017 | 236475 | Best of Werewolves of Miller's Hollow | 0.133 | no |
65 | 2012 | 105551 | Archipelago | 0.130 | no |
66 | 2018 | 259809 | Sonar Family | 0.130 | no |
67 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.126 | no |
68 | 2014 | 146725 | Golem Arcana | 0.125 | no |
69 | 2012 | 128882 | The Resistance: Avalon | 0.125 | yes |
70 | 2018 | 221661 | Patriots & Redcoats | 0.125 | no |
71 | 2005 | 20090 | Double Agent | 0.124 | no |
72 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.120 | no |
73 | 2015 | 180956 | One Night Ultimate Vampire | 0.119 | no |
74 | 2017 | 211534 | Bears vs Babies | 0.117 | no |
75 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.116 | no |
76 | 2003 | 6824 | Gold und Rum | 0.115 | no |
77 | 2017 | 246398 | Exploding Kittens: Newbie Edition | 0.115 | no |
78 | 2018 | 198830 | Heroes of Land, Air & Sea | 0.113 | no |
79 | 2019 | 235451 | GROWL | 0.111 | no |
80 | 2007 | 29387 | Zombie Fluxx | 0.109 | no |
81 | 2018 | 232823 | Best Treehouse Ever: Forest of Fun | 0.109 | no |
82 | 2019 | 255293 | One Night Ultimate Super Villains | 0.105 | no |
83 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.102 | no |
84 | 2009 | 56885 | The Werewolves of Miller's Hollow: The Village | 0.102 | no |
85 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.102 | no |
86 | 2000 | 815 | Chrononauts | 0.100 | no |
87 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.100 | no |
88 | 2017 | 204431 | One Night Ultimate Alien | 0.098 | no |
89 | 2012 | 113924 | Zombicide | 0.097 | no |
90 | 2006 | 22038 | Warrior Knights | 0.097 | no |
91 | 2016 | 188834 | Secret Hitler | 0.096 | yes |
92 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.095 | no |
93 | 2015 | 176884 | Reign: The Card Game | 0.091 | no |
94 | 2017 | 227070 | Scrooge: The Board Game | 0.090 | no |
95 | 2018 | 242574 | Century: Eastern Wonders | 0.090 | no |
96 | 2018 | 260561 | WARIGIN | 0.088 | no |
97 | 2018 | 171964 | The Order of Vampire Hunters | 0.088 | no |
98 | 2015 | 169611 | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | 0.088 | no |
99 | 2018 | 255664 | The Binding of Isaac: Four Souls | 0.087 | no |
100 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.087 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.94 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Drmaestro is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.924 | no |
1982 | 2653 | Survive: Escape from Atlantis! | 0.821 | no |
2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.819 | no |
2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.767 | no |
2015 | 163967 | Tiny Epic Galaxies | 0.654 | no |
What games does the model think Drmaestro is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1975 | 2249 | The Sinking of the Titanic | 0.000 | yes |
1997 | 258 | Fluxx | 0.000 | yes |
1967 | 847 | Feudal | 0.001 | yes |
2018 | 218121 | Dice Hospital | 0.001 | yes |
2009 | 50381 | Cards Against Humanity | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Space Cadets | Room 25 | The Worst Game Ever | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Gloomhaven | Tiny Epic Zombies | Last Bastion |
2 | Coup | BANG! The Dice Game | Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Salem 1692 | Terraforming Mars | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
3 | Android: Netrunner | Forbidden Desert | Coup: Rebellion G54 | Tiny Epic Defenders | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 21 Days | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Ultra-Tiny Epic Galaxies |
4 | Archipelago | Impulse | Ultimate Werewolf | One Night Ultimate Werewolf: Daybreak | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Best of Werewolves of Miller's Hollow | Forsaken Forest | Era: Medieval Age |
5 | The Resistance: Avalon | Kings of Air and Steam | Golem Arcana | Lost Legacy: Second Chronicle – Vorpal Sword & Whitegold Spire | Star Wars: Rebellion | Bears vs Babies | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Tiny Towns |
6 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Fox & Chicken | AquaSphere | One Night Revolution | Tiny Epic Western | Exploding Kittens: Newbie Edition | Sonar Family | Tiny Epic Tactics |
7 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Train Heist | One Night Ultimate Werewolf | One Night Ultimate Vampire | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | One Night Ultimate Alien | Patriots & Redcoats | Tiny Epic Mechs |
8 | Zombicide | Rory's Story Cubes: Prehistoria | Saboteur: The Duel | 504 | Captain Sonar | Scrooge: The Board Game | Heroes of Land, Air & Sea | GROWL |
9 | Dixit: Journey | Two Rooms and a Boom | Patchwork | Reign: The Card Game | Black Orchestra | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Best Treehouse Ever: Forest of Fun | One Night Ultimate Super Villains |
10 | Tokaido | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Good Cop Bad Cop | Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies | Corrupted Kingdoms | Problem Picnic: Attack of the Ants | Century: Eastern Wonders | UBOOT: The Board Game |
11 | Keyflower | Boss Monster: The Dungeon Building Card Game | Lost Legacy: The Starship | Imagine | Secret Hitler | Exploding Kittens: Party Pack | The Order of Vampire Hunters | Nights of Fire: Battle for Budapest |
12 | Libertalia | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Lost Legacy: Flying Garden | Best Treehouse Ever | DETHRONED: The Real-Time Combat Card Game | Spirit Island | WARIGIN | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
13 | Mafia: Vendetta | Mascarade | Outfoxed! | Exploding Kittens: NSFW Deck | Hit Z Road | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | The Binding of Isaac: Four Souls | Black Angel |
14 | Dixit Jinx | Glass Road | Scalawag! | Exploding Kittens | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Leaders of Euphoria: Choose a Better Oppressor | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Slyville |
15 | Article 27: The UN Security Council Game | This Is Not a Test: Post-Apocalyptic Skirmish Rules | Sheriff of Nottingham | Coup Deluxe: Mobile Edition | Archer: Once You Go Blackmail... | Werwölfe | Tiny Epic Defenders (Second Edition) | Two Robots |
16 | Serenissima (Second Edition) | Complots | Stay Away! | Codenames | Citadels | Critters Below | Mini DiverCity | Star Trek Chrono-Trek |
17 | Mutant Meeples | Tomorrow | Bigfoot | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Scythe | Secrets | Everdell | Jaws |
18 | Divinare | Cappuccino | BANG!: The Walking Dead | Stowaway 52 | The Oregon Trail Card Game | Dungeon of Mandom VIII | The Pirate Republic | Warehouse 13: The Board Game |
19 | The Last Banquet | Lost Legacy: Hyakunen Senso to Ryu no Miko | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Lost Legacy: Third Chronicle – Sacred Grail & Staff of Dragons | Lost Legacy: Fourth Chronicle – The Werewolf & Undying Heart | Lovecraft Letter | Boomerang | Unmatched Game System |
20 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | A Study in Emerald | Black Fleet | Mysterium | New Angeles | Island Hopper | Werewords Deluxe Edition | The Neverland Rescue |
21 | Exodus: Proxima Centauri | Corto | Witness | 3 Kings | 13 Days: The Cuban Missile Crisis | Crossfire | Get the MacGuffin | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
22 | Kill the Overlord | Agent Hunter | Templar Intrigue | Watson & Holmes | When I Dream | The Deception of Antiques: 12 Chinese Zodiac Bronze Heads | End of the Trail | Arena: The Contest |
23 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Sails of Glory | Bucket of Doom | Unspeakable Words: Deluxe Edition | The Great Dinosaur Rush | Apocrypha Adventure Card Game: Box One – The World | The Villagers | Wavelength |
24 | VivaJava: The Coffee Game | Dungeon Roll | Fields of Arle | The Fittest | Burke's Gambit | Game of Trolls | Narcos: The Board Game | The Magnificent |
25 | One Night Werewolf | BattleCON: Devastation of Indines | Lost Legacy: Binbo Tantei to Inbo no Shiro | Zaginione Dziedzictwo: Gwiezdne Ostrze | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Muse | Shadows: Amsterdam | Pax Pamir: Second Edition |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Drmaestro | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.998 |
Drmaestro | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.998 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.205 | yes |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.193 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.146 | no |
2020 | 317105 | Tiny Epic Galaxies BLAST OFF! | 0.142 | no |
2020 | 309110 | Food Chain Island | 0.122 | no |
2020 | 347802 | Hellapagos | 0.108 | yes |
2020 | 291508 | Tiny Epic Dinosaurs | 0.088 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.074 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.067 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.060 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.057 | no |
2020 | 245659 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Vendetta | 0.045 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 284665 | Board Royale: The Island | 0.040 | no |
2020 | 283095 | Cosmic Colonies | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 287033 | Gray Eminence | 0.031 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 286534 | The Quick and the Undead | 0.029 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 278783 | Almanac: The Dragon Road | 0.027 | no |
2020 | 236713 | Sea of Plunder | 0.025 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 313850 | Escape The Night: The Board Game | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 300367 | Boomerang: Europe | 0.022 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 313817 | Hello Neighbor: The Secret Neighbor Party Game | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 282081 | The Zorro Dice Game | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 296237 | Warp's Edge | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 284998 | Reigns: The Council | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 294652 | By Stealth and Sea | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.019 | no |
2020 | 282171 | Trial by Trolley | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 188758 | Gladiatores: Blood for Roses | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 296167 | Boomerang: Australia | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 300369 | Boomerang: USA | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 299027 | Colt Super Express | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 295687 | Trust Me, I'm a Doctor | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 325611 | Runes of Zun | 0.014 | no |
2020 | 296892 | Sacred Rites | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 276669 | Sensor Ghosts | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 263894 | Grind House | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 286236 | Poisons | 0.012 | no |
2020 | 317981 | Coyote | 0.011 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.296 | no |
2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.204 | no |
2021 | 331787 | Tiny Epic Dungeons | 0.204 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.155 | no |
2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.151 | no |
2022 | 271601 | Feed the Kraken | 0.087 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.081 | no |
2021 | 309430 | Tiny Epic Pirates | 0.074 | no |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.072 | no |
2021 | 339790 | Cocktail | 0.069 | no |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.068 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.063 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.053 | no |
2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.046 | no |
2022 | 240980 | Blood on the Clocktower | 0.044 | no |
2021 | 286439 | Import / Export: Definitive Edition | 0.042 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.037 | no |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.033 | no |
2022 | 318838 | Quests & Cannons: The Risen Islands | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 343696 | Dune: Betrayal | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.030 | no |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 296238 | Sea of Legends | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.027 | no |
2021 | 322709 | Ugly Gryphon Inn | 0.026 | no |
2021 | 331328 | Unsurmountable | 0.026 | no |
2021 | 277700 | Merchants Cove | 0.025 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.024 | no |
2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.023 | no |
2021 | 331685 | Hit the Silk! | 0.022 | no |
2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.020 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.019 | no |
2021 | 320136 | Naruto: Ninja Arena | 0.019 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.016 | no |
2021 | 307715 | High Noon | 0.015 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.014 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.014 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.014 | no |
2021 | 347304 | Time's Up!: Harry Potter | 0.013 | no |
2022 | 320718 | Hidden Leaders | 0.013 | no |
2021 | 345976 | System Gateway (fan expansion for Android: Netrunner) | 0.013 | no |
2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.012 | no |
2021 | 337262 | Fangs | 0.012 | no |
2021 | 275557 | The Last Bottle of Rum | 0.012 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.012 | yes |
2021 | 337324 | A.D.E.L.E. | 0.011 | no |
2021 | 328569 | Mint Bid | 0.011 | no |
2021 | 325414 | Happy Little Dinosaurs | 0.011 | no |
2021 | 341164 | Exploding Minions | 0.011 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.010 | no |
2021 | 316625 | Cafe Chaos | 0.010 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.010 | no |
2021 | 282776 | Tumble Town | 0.010 | no |
2021 | 337389 | Snakesss | 0.009 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.009 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.009 | no |
2021 | 257305 | SHASN | 0.009 | no |
2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 309250 | Empyrean Hero: The Card Game | 0.008 | no |
2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 260789 | Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood of Venice | 0.008 | no |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.008 | no |
2022 | 351605 | Bohnanza: 25th Anniversary Edition | 0.008 | no |
2022 | 316915 | U.S.S. Freedom | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.008 | no |
2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 288385 | Masters of the Night | 0.008 | no |
2021 | 278304 | Fief: France Edition | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.007 | no |
2022 | 332393 | Bridge City Poker | 0.007 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 322014 | All-Star Draft | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 221298 | NewSpeak | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 318996 | Welcome to Sysifus Corp | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 329714 | Dreadful Circus | 0.007 | no |
2021 | 313935 | The Mariana Trench | 0.006 | no |
2021 | 239175 | Shiver Me Timbers | 0.006 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.006 | no |
2022 | 294880 | Chai: Tea for 2 | 0.006 | no |
2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.006 | no |
2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.006 | no |
2021 | 294986 | Necromolds: Monster Battles | 0.005 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.005 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.005 | no |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.005 | no |
2022 | 277025 | Vampire: The Masquerade – Chapters | 0.005 | no |
2022 | 321608 | Hegemony: Lead Your Class to Victory | 0.005 | no |
2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.005 | no |
2021 | 302461 | Intrepid | 0.005 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.005 | no |